All the prop bet recommendations, betting projections and trends are generated by THE BAT X, a system that I've created using advanced methods like those used in MLB front offices, accounting for a variety of factors including player talent, ballparks, bullpens, weather, umpires, defense, catcher pitch-framing and more. Betting projections for every player, team and game can be found at EV Analytics.
Note: Expected Value is a measure of how good a bet is, factoring the probability that it will win versus the odds the book is providing. If you were to place a $1 wager 100 times on a bet with an Expected Value of $25, you would win some and you would lose some, but in the end you would expect to come away with $25 in profit on your $100 investment.
Other resources: Fantasy lineup advice | WS odds | Fantasy Buzz
Sunday's top batter prop bets
Munetaka Murakami | OVER 0.5 HR (+457)
Projection: 21% chance of this bet hitting, with a $18.20 EV
One reason to bet this: According to projections, Guaranteed Rate Field projects as the fourth-best stadium for left-handed home runs.
Miguel Vargas | OVER 0.5 RBI (+238)
Projection: 35% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.04 EV
One reason to bet this: The wind is expected to blow out to center field at 16.1 mph in this game, the second-best of the day for hitters.
Will Smith | UNDER 0.5 H (+180)
Projection: 43% chance of this bet hitting, with a $19.06 EV
One reason to bet this: Right-handed hitters do poorly in Nationals Park, according to projections.
Sunday's top pitcher prop bets
Max Fried | UNDER 1.5 ER (-111)
Projection: 64% chance of this bet hitting, with a $24.82 EV
One reason to bet this: Yankee Stadium has the fifth-deepest centerfield fences.
Taijuan Walker | UNDER 3.5 K (-111)
Projection: 58% chance of this bet hitting, with a $11.59 EV
One reason to bet this: In his previous start, Walker struggled to rack up strikeouts, finishing with just two.
Ranger Suarez | UNDER 2.5 ER (-137)
Projection: 63% chance of this bet hitting, with a $12.83 EV
One reason to bet this: The Boston Red Sox outfield defense projects as the third-best out of every team today.
THE BAT X: Team Projections
Top betting trends
Los Angeles Dodgers Moneyline: The Dodgers have won 13 of their past 15 road games, dating back to last year's postseason run.
(13-2) (+10.30 Units / 52% ROI). Current odds: -219
Toronto Blue Jays 1st 5 innings (F5) Moneyline:The Blue Jays have led after five innings in 12 of their past 20 games, also dating back to last year's postseason run.
(12-4-4) (+9.85 Units / 41% ROI). Current odds: -154
New York Yankees 1st 5 innings (F5) Moneyline: The Yankees have led after five innings in 15 of their last 20 home games.
(15-3-2) (+10.20 Units / 27% ROI). Current odds: -280
Note: While trends can be fun to examine and provide a snapshot of how teams have been doing, please be aware that past results are never fully predictive of future performance. These may be some of the strongest current trends, but they are not necessarily recommendations for today's action. Early in the season, these trends may extend back to last year's play.